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Every year I spend time thinking about what are the technologies going from deceptive to disruptive this year that today's exponential leaders need to be thinking about and actually beginning to work with.
每年我都会花时间思考，今年有哪些从具有误导性变成颠覆性的技术，今天的领导人需要思考这一问题并开始利用这些技术。
And for this coming year, for the next few years my view is that virtual reality is part of that.
在未来的一年，或者对于未来的几年，我认为，虚拟现实技术是其中的技术之一。
And it's gotten different terms and there are different elements of it, virtual world, virtual reality, augmented reality.
它有不同的名称，不同的元素，比如虚拟世界，虚拟现实，增强现实。
And really the kickoff was the purchase of Oculus Rift by Facebook for a couple of billion dollars.
而真正的变革时刻是Facebook以几十亿美元收购Oculus Rift。
But in addition to that what we've seen is a number of technologies coming together ¨C infinite computing, very cheap high resolution cameras, machine learning capabilities, low latency, high bandwidth networks.
除此之外，我们所看到的是一些技术的结合--无限计算、非常便宜的高分辨率相机、机器学习能力、低延迟、高带宽网络。
All of these things are coming together to reinvent the virtual world experience.
所有这些东西正在一起重塑虚拟世界的体验。
If you think about cars.
拿汽车来举例。
Forty thousand people died in the United States last year driving, 1.3 million worldwide died in car accidents.
去年美国有4万人死于驾车，全世界有130万人死于车祸。
Think about the productivity lost by sitting in a box for an hour each way to and from work.
想一想上下班时坐在车子里一小时所损失的生产力。
Think about the fossil fuel that we're burning while we commute back and forth to work.
想一想我们来回上班时燃烧的化石燃料。
Think about the road rage.
想想路怒症的现象。
Think about the germs that you get on public transportation.
想想你在公共交通上感染的病菌。
I'm not claiming that we should not see people.
我并不是说我们不应该和他人接触。
I love social connection.
相反，我喜欢社会联系。
What I'm saying is that there's a subset of travel that if you think about it, why do we drive all the way to work so we can sit at a desk and pound on a computer? Maybe we only need to go two days to work.
我想说的是，如果你想一想，为什么我们要大老远开车去上班，坐在桌子前对着电脑？也许我们只需要每周工作两天。
And for those meetings that are not essential we need to put those in VR.
而对于那些非必要的会议，我们可以把这些放在VR中进行。
We cannot support a planet of 11 billion people which we'll be at quite soon with everybody driving and flying everywhere using fossil fuels it's just not going to happen.
我们无法支持一个拥有110亿人口的星球，但是我们很快就会达到这个水平，每个人都开车，坐飞机，使用化石燃料，这是我们不想看到的。
So, why don't we have networked meetings yet? And the answer is because there's this secret sauce, this social presence that we have face to face that we don't get with video conference yet and VR isn't there yet.
那么，为什么我们还没有网上的会议？答案是，因为我们需要面对面的社交，我们通过视频会议和VR还得不到这种体验。
So what we need to do is to be able to track more body movements.
所以我们需要做的是能够追踪更多的人类行为。
The bottleneck is actually not bandwidth because avatar-based communication is cheaper from an bandwidth standpoint than video.
现在发展的瓶颈实际上不是带宽问题，因为从带宽的角度来看，基于虚拟替身的交流比视频更便宜。
The reason is if you're doing an avatar-based communication, all the 3D models for the avatars are stored locally on each machine.
如果你在做基于虚拟替身的通信，所有虚拟替身的3D模型都存储在每台机器上。
What travels over the network is the tracking data.
在网络上传播的是跟踪数据。
So, locally a camera detects that I smiled and then it sends over network a packet that says smile at 22 percent.
因此，在本地，摄像机检测到我在笑，然后它通过网络发送一个数据包，上面写着22%的微笑。
And then on the other computer it then draws that smile.
然后在另一台电脑上，它就会画出这个微笑。
So you're not sending visual information over the network.
所以不是通过网络发送视觉信息。
What you're sending is very cheap information which is semantic information about movements.
你所发送的是非常廉价的信息，这是关于运动的语义信息。
The bottleneck is we can't track movements that accurately so if you think of the commercial systems right now they track what we call 18 degrees of freedom.
现在的瓶颈是我们无法准确地跟踪运动，所以如果你考虑到现在的商业系统，他们跟踪我们称之为18个自由度的东西。
Your head and both hands.
你的头和两只手。
You can do rotation which has three and X, Y and Z which is obviously three.
你可以进行旋转，这有三个，X、Y和Z。
And so you've got 18 points, two hands and a head.
所以你有18个点，两只手和一个头。
In order to have the conversation flow we need to have subtle cheek movements and the twitch of my elbow, everything I do communicates meaning whether I'm doing it intentionally or not.
为了使对话流畅，我们需要有微妙的脸颊动作和我肘部的抽动，我所做的一切都传达了意义，无论我是否有意为之。
Imagine a virtual reality experience where when you go into such a reality world everything looks like it's real and you can navigate around it and begin to do extraordinary things in this high fidelity world.
想象一下虚拟现实的体验，当你进入这样的现实世界时，一切看起来都是真实的，你可以在周围导航，并开始在这个高保真的世界里做非凡的事情。
At home you will have yourself 3D scanned down to the millimeter.
在家里，你会对自己进行3D扫描，准确度会精确到毫米。
I then enter into a virtual world and I have an AI there that is my shopping advisor.
然后我进入一个虚拟世界，那里有一个人工智能，它是我的购物顾问。
It says Peter, what are you looking for? And all of a sudden in this virtual world everything I see is in my size, in the colors I want, recommended by this AI.
它说彼得，你在寻找什么？突然间，在这个虚拟世界里，我看到的所有东西都有符合我的尺寸，有我想要的颜色，这些都由这个人工智能推荐而来。
And I can say, you know, I'd love to see a fashion show.
我很想看一场时装秀。
On a runway are avatars of me wearing all these different outfits walking by and I can say I want to see that one and that one and all of a sudden I'm looking in a virtual mirror and I'm wearing that outfit.
在T台上，我的虚拟化身穿着所有这些不同的服装走过，我可以说我想看这件和那件，突然间，我在虚拟的镜子里看到了我正穿着那件衣服。
And I can look around, see what it looks like and I go, ""This is it.
我可以环顾四周，看看它看起来像什么，然后我就说，"就是这个。
I want that.""
我想要这个。"
Boom, it's produced, manufactured to my exact size probably using 3D printing capabilities or robotic capabilities that afternoon in the local factory and delivered the next morning and it fits perfectly.
砰，使用3D打印能力或机器人能力，它按照我的尺寸当天下午在当地的工厂生产出来了，第二天早上交付给上级，他穿上这衣服非常合适。
So that's the future of the virtual retail store if you would and why I think virtual reality is going to do effectively a hundredfold improvement over what the Amazon experience is today.
因此，这就是虚拟零售店的未来，如果你愿意的话，我认为虚拟现实将比今天的亚马逊体验感提高一百倍。
The line between what it means to be dreaming and what it means to be awake is going to become very interesting.
做梦的意义和清醒的意义之间的界限将变得非常有趣。
It's going to become more and more interesting because remember, VR is just one piece of a generalized consequence of accelerating technology.
它将变得越来越有趣，因为VR只是技术加速的普遍结果中的一个部分。
And so it's not just that we're going to be doing VR.
因此，不仅仅我们要做VR。
We're also going to be radically improving our actuation capacity in the world in general.
我们还将从根本上改善我们在世界范围内的执行能力。
And so we can imagine circumstances where I might craft an object in VR and then say in quasi real time some mechanism is, in fact, actually 3D printing that object so that I reach out, take off my VR glasses and the thing that I thought I was creating in an entirely imaginary space is actually physically present in my hand.
我们可以想象这样的情况：我可能在VR中制作一个物体，然后说在准实时的情况下，一些机制实际上正在3D打印这个物体，所以我伸出手来，摘下我的VR眼镜，我认为我在一个完全想象的空间中创造的东西实际上是在我手中。
That's going to cause some very interesting changes in the way that we relate to the difference between what reality can do and what imagination can do.
这将引起一些非常有趣的变化，使我们将现实和想象之间的差异联系起来。
VR is extremely well positioned to create a designed reality that you are going to have a very, very hard time rejecting.
VR在创造一个设计好的现实方面处于极其有利的地位，你将很难拒绝它的使用。
If you think about the way the propaganda back in the early twentieth century got good at understanding how human beings parse information to make decisions and getting in underneath our psychological defense mechanisms, VR is 100 million times more capable of engaging in that.
你想想二十世纪初的宣传方式，它擅长了解人类如何解析信息以做出决定，并进入我们的心理防御机制之下，VR在这方面的能力比人们要强一亿倍。
The good news is that if we do a much, much better job at being let's call it ethical and crafting a relationship between our power to affect the world and the way that power affects us.
好消息是，如果我们做得更好，让我们称之为道义，并在我们影响世界的力量和这种力量影响我们的方式之间建立一种关系。
So, if we do a much, much better job at being ethical around VR then it will be the most powerful tool that we have for radically improving the way that we respond to the world.
因此，如果我们在VR方面做得更好，做得更有道义，它将是我们拥有的最强大的工具，可以从根本上改善我们应对世界的方式。
For upgrading our capacity to respond to the world because it would be a much more embodied and whole system hack for our deep constructs.
它能提升我们对世界的反应能力，因为这将是一个更加具体和完整的系统黑客对我们的深层构造。
