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China’s slowdown is moving financial markets at home—the CSI300 index of large Chinese stocks has fallen by 4% since August 10th—and worldwide. The price of iron ore has slumped by 21% since the end of last month, and the price of copper has fallen by more than 5%. China’s tough stance will also prevent any revival of travel to other countries. That is bad news for places like Thailand, which relied on Chinese visitors for almost 30% of its tourist receipts before the pandemic.
中国经济放缓正在影响国内的金融市场——自8月10日以来，中国大型股票的CSI300指数已经下跌了4%——全球亦然。自上月末以来，铁矿石价格下跌了21%，铜价下跌超过5%。中国的强硬立场也将阻止出国旅游的复苏。这对泰国等地来说是个坏消息。疫情前，泰国近30%的旅游收入来自中国游客。
China’s fight against Delta will be costly. But it is also proving successful. New local infections (excluding imported cases) dropped to just six on August 16th. The outbreak has started to narrow in scope as well as scale: 134 neighbourhoods still remain at risk, by the government‘s reckoning, down from 224 on August 10th.
中国对抗德尔塔毒株的代价将是高昂的。但事实也证明它是成功的。8月16日，本地新增病例(不包括境外病例)降至6例。疫情的范围和规模都开始缩小：根据政府的估算，目前有134个社区仍处于危险之中，比8月10日的224个有所下降。
China has both an unusual ability to contain Delta outbreaks and a strong incentive to do so. It lacks two of the characteristics that have allowed other countries to tolerate an otherwise disturbing rate of Delta infections. Relatively few of China’s people have caught covid-19 in the past. As a consequence, few have any natural immunity to the disease. And although a respectable percentage of the population have received two jabs (over 55%, according to the government) China’s vaccines appear less effective than Western versions. The share of China’s population that enjoys some kind of immunity is lower than India’s or even Indonesia’s, according to Goldman Sachs, even though its vaccination rate is far higher. If China were to drop its defences and tolerate the infection rates common in America and Europe, the number of people suffering from severe illness could rise to alarming levels.
中国在控制德尔塔病毒爆发方面有着不同寻常的能力，它也有强大的动力这么做。它缺乏其他国家能容忍令人不安的德尔塔病毒感染率的两个特征。之前，中国感染新冠肺炎的人相对较少。因此，很少有人对这种疾病有天然的免疫力。尽管有相当比例的人接种了两剂疫苗(根据政府的数据，接种比率超过了 55%)，但中国的疫苗似乎不如西方的疫苗有效。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的数据显示，尽管疫苗接种率较高，但中国享有某种免疫力的人口比例低于印度，甚至低于印尼。如果中国放弃防御措施，容忍像美国和欧洲那样常见的感染率，那么患有严重疾病的人数可能会上升到令人担忧的水平。
China is unusually good at fighting Delta. And it needs to be. Having failed to fail against previous waves of the disease, it is now obliged to succeed again.
中国在对抗德尔塔病毒方面异常出色。它也必须如此。在成功应对前几波疫情之后，再一次取得成功也理所当然。
译文由可可原创，仅供学习交流使用，未经许可请勿转载。
