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The port infection is part of an outbreak that was first discovered on July 20th at Nanjing airport. By August 10th it had spread across a dozen provinces. Unlike other countries, which are learning to live with Delta, China has imposed a hardcore combination of widespread testing and uncompromising quarantines. Anyone who tests positive is whisked to hospital, even if they are free of symptoms. Anyone judged to have come into close contact with them (based on mobile-phone data and other indicators) is quarantined, as are close contacts of these contacts. By August 10th China had quarantined 50,808 people, more than 20 for every active confirmed case. The government has discouraged inessential travel between cities and provinces. And two of the worst-hit cities, Nanjing and Zhengzhou, have postponed the start of the school year. According to a gauge of lockdowns devised by Goldman Sachs, a bank, China’s restrictions are now as tight as they were in April 2020.
此次口岸感染是7月20日在南京机场首次发现的疫情所引发的扩散。截至8月10日，它已经蔓延到十几个省份。与其他正在学习与德尔塔共存的国家不同，中国采取的是广泛检测和毫不妥协的隔离检疫相结合的硬核措施。任何检测呈阳性的人都会被迅速送往医院，即使他们没有任何症状。任何被判定与他们有过密切接触的人(根据移动电话数据和其他指标)都会被隔离，这些接触者的密切接触者也会被隔离。截至8月10日，中国已经隔离了50808人，平均每一个现有确诊病例要隔离20多人。政府不鼓励不必要的跨市和跨省旅行。疫情最严重的两个城市，南京和郑州，已经推迟了秋季开学日期。根据高盛(Goldman Sachs)设计的封锁指标，中国现在的限制措施与2020年4月时一样严格。
The impact of the restrictions is already showing up in high-frequency data. Airports were operating at only 38% of their capacity on August 12th, according to Flight Master, an online-travel platform. And the median amount of traffic congestion in the 12 cities most affected by the outbreak has fallen 12% below its pre-pandemic norm, according to Ernan Cui of Gavekal Dragonomics, a research firm.
限制措施所产生的影响已经在高频数据中有所显现。根据在线旅行平台Flight Master的数据，8月12日，机场的运力只有38%。研究公司龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)的Ernan Cui表示，受疫情影响最严重的12个城市的交通拥堵中位数比疫情前的正常水平下降了12%。
This immobilisation will add to an economic slowdown that was already under way. Industrial production, retail sales, investment and property sales were all weaker than expected in July, partly because the government is trying to curb steelmaking to preserve the environment, and housing speculation to preserve financial stability. Ting Lu of Nomura, another bank, expects GDP to be only 0.3% higher this quarter than last. He has cut his forecast for growth this year from 8.9% to 8.2%, which might warrant further easing from China’s central bank, even as housing curbs remain.
这种停滞将加剧已经出现的经济放缓。7月份的工业生产、零售销售、投资和房地产销售都比预期要差，部分原因是政府为了保护环境在试图抑制钢铁生产，为了保持金融稳定在抑制房地产投机。另一家银行野村证券的陆挺预计，本季度GDP仅比上季度高出0.3%。他已将今年的经济增长预期从8.9%下调至8.2%，这可能使中国央行有理由进一步放宽政策，尽管楼市调控仍在继续。
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