LAST month a local official in Aichiprefecture set out a daring proposal. Tomonaga Osada suggested that theauthorities could distribute secretly punctured condoms to young marriedcouples, who would then get to work boosting the birth rate. His unorthodoxploy won few supporters, yet it reflects a gathering concern about Japan’sdemographic plight. Last year just over 1m babies were born, far fewer than thenumber needed to maintain the population, which is expected to drop from 127m toaround 87m by 2060. Why are young Japanese so loth to procreate?
上个月，日本爱知县当地官员提出了一项大胆的提议。Tomonaga Osada提议有关当局秘密向已婚的年轻夫妇发放被刺破的避孕套，以此让他们提高生育率。这个异端的计策并未获得支持，但这却反映了日益让人感到担忧的日本人口困境，去年，日本只迎来了100万新生儿，这些数量远低于维持人口所需的数量。据预期，截至2060年，日本人口将从1.27亿落到8700万左右。那么，为何日本的年轻人不愿意生育子女呢？
The spiral of demographic decline isspinning faster as the number of women of child-bearing age falls. In May areport predicted that 500 or more towns across the country will disappear byaround 2040 as young women migrate to bigger cities. The workforce is alreadyshrinking, imperiling future growth. In recent years governments have embarkedon a plethora of schemes to encourage childbearing, including a “women’shandbook” to educate young females on the high and lowpoints of their fertility, and state-sponsored matchmaking events.
随着育龄妇女人数的减少，人口呈螺旋式下降的速度越来越快。5月份发布的一份报道预示，随着年轻女性移居大城市，截止2040年左右，日本国内将有500个甚至更多的城镇消失。日本的奥洞里已经在萎缩，这将危及将来的发展。近年来，政府已经实施了大量鼓励生育的方案，其中包括发放“妇女指南”对妇女的生育能力高低峰进行指导，还有国家赞助的相亲活动。
The chief reason for the dearth ofbirths is the decline of marriage. Fewer people are opting to wed, andthey are doing so later in life. At least a third of young women aim to becomefull-time housewives, yet they struggle to find men who can support atraditional family. In better economic times potential suitors had permanentjobs as part of the “lifetime employment” system. Now many hold down temporaryor part-time work. Other women shun marriage and children because Japan’sold-fashioned corporate culture, together with a dire shortage of childcare,would force them to give up their careers. Finally, young people are bound bystrict social codes. Only around 2% of babies are born outside marriage(compared with 30-50% in most of the rich world), which means that as weddingsplummet, so do births. Even for those who do start families, the rising cost ofchild-rearing often imposes a de facto one-child policy.
低生育率的主要原因是结婚率的降低。越来越少的人选择步入婚姻殿堂，他们选择在晚年结婚。至少有三分之一年轻女性的目标是成为全职家庭主妇，然而他们很难找到可以支撑起这种传统家庭模式的男人。在经济情况比较好的时候，她们潜在的求婚者拥有着“终身就业”体制内的稳定工作，但现在，很多人只有临时或兼职工作。日本老式的企业文化以及严重缺乏儿童保育迫使妇女不得不放弃职业也是另一些妇女避开婚姻和生育的原因。最后就是，年轻人受到严格社会规范的制约，只有2%的婴儿出生率发生在婚外（相比之下，大多发达国家达到了30-50%）。这意味着，结婚率下跌，出生率也跟着下跌。即使对于那些有孩子的人来说，养育孩子成本的增加使得他们往往只能落实一胎政策。
So far the government of Shinzo Abe hastalked about such steps, but shied away from taking them. Instead Mr Abe isacting to help women combine careers with children. Many demographers reckon itis already too late to lift Japan’s birth rate, now at 1.43children per woman. The eventual answer, they say, will be more shocking eventhan spiked prophylactics: mass immigration.
目前，安倍政府已经提到了这些措施，但却在回避落实。相反，安倍先生正采取行动帮助女性兼顾职业和孩子。很多人口学家认为，提高日本的生育率为时已晚，现在日本女性人均生育率为1.43。他们说，最终的解决方法将比发放被刺的避孕套更令人感到震惊：大批移民入境。
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