评论
打印
Finance and economics: China's economic data Right on target
中国经济数据，正中红心
Is growth really 7% a year?
增长率当真是年7%？
It all seems a little too perfect to be true.
一切似乎完美得难以置信。
The Chinese government set a growth target of “about 7%” this year; the economy, ever responsive to the Communist Party's needs, has hit exactly that number for two quarters in a row.
中国政府今年年初制定了“约7%”的增长目标；像是一向为了回应共产党的需求，中国经济连续两个季度准确命中了7%的目标。
Cue a chorus of scepticism.
这暗合了某些怀疑论调。
The first quarter did look suspicious.
第一季度的确看着可疑。
Growth in industrial production was the weakest since the depths of the financial crisis; the property market, a pillar of the economy, crumbled.
工业产值增长率降至金融危机后的最低点；房地产市场这一经济支柱也严重垮塌。
China reported real growth (ie, after accounting for inflation) of 7% year on year in the first quarter, but nominal growth of just 5.8%.
中国发布的第一季度实际增长率（即考虑通货膨胀后的增长率）为同比增长7%，但名义增长率仅为5.8%。
The only way to arrive at the higher real figure was to put the GDP deflator, a measure of inflation, at -1.1%.
使得真实增长率达到更高水平的唯一途径是GDP平减指数（通货膨胀衡量指标）调整为-1.1%。
That implied the economy suffered broad-based deflation, a bizarre claim given that consumer prices rose by more than 1% at the same time.
这意味着中国经济遭受了大范围通货紧缩，但离奇的是与此同时，消费价格增长大于1%。
Had the GDP deflator been more accurate, Chang Liu and Mark Williams of Capital Economics reckon, real growth in the first quarter would have been one or two percentage points lower.
凯投宏观的刘畅和马克·威廉姆斯测算，如果GDP平减指数能更加精确，那么第一季度的实际增长率将会再低一至二个百分点。
The data for the second quarter are more credible.
第二季度的数据则更为可信。
In nominal terms, growth rebounded strongly to 7.1%.
名义利率强势反弹至7.1%。
The corollary is that the GDP deflator is now 0.1%, a reading that is much more consistent with rising consumer prices and falling producer prices.
其必然结果是GDP平减指数现已达到0.1%，表现得与增长的消费价格和下跌的生产价格更为一致。
There were signs of some tampering: without explanation, the national bureau of statistics cut the quarter-on-quarter growth rate in the second quarter of 2014 to 1.9% from 2%.
但篡改痕迹仍然存在：国家统计局将2014年第二季度的环比增长率从2%改为1.9%，且未对此做出任何解释。
That doubtless flattered the data for the second quarter of this year by lowering the base for comparison.
这种降低比较基数的行为无疑是对今年第二季度数据的美化。
But the impact is small: a few tenths of a percentage point, perhaps.
但这影响不大，大概只是零点几个百分点而已。
What is more, the sources of Chinese growth in the second quarter were less mysterious than in the first.
此外，二季度中国增长率的来源比之一季度要来的更加明朗。
Although investment continued to slow, services accelerated.
投资虽持续放缓，服务业却加速上升。
Industry grew by 5.9% year on year in the second quarter, down from 6.4% in the first quarter.
二季度工业同比增长了5.9%，低于一季度的6.4%。
In contrast, services jumped to 8.9% growth from 7.9% in the first quarter.
与之相反，服务业的增长率从一季度的7.9%跃至8.9%。
That matters since services now account for a larger share of Chinese GDP than industry.
自从服务业占GDP比重大于工业之后，这就显得尤为重要。
This acceleration in services is unlikely to last.
这种服务业的增长不太可能持续。
It derives to a large extent from the soaring stock market, which boosted financial firms.
它在很大程度上来源于股市飙升时促进的金融机构的繁荣。
That lift has presumably become a drag in recent weeks as share prices have dived.
但在股价骤降之后，近几周，原先的助力恐怕就成了累赘。
Transient as it was, however, China's statisticians did not invent the financial boom.
然而这是暂时的，毕竟这一场金融盛况并不是中国的统计学家编造出来的。
