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As we know, the Fed has already started raising interest rates and we have already seen some of the downstream effects of that that you were talking about.
正如我们所知，美联储已经开始加息，我们已经看到了你所说的一些下游效应。
Mortgage rates are up and, you know, building has already started slowing down a little bit.
抵押贷款利率上升，建筑行业已经开始放缓。
But I guess my question is, is it helping with inflation, which is the reason that the Fed is raising interest rates in the first place?
但我想我的问题是，这是否会助长通胀，这是美联储加息的首要原因吗？
I think it is. And where it's had the biggest effect is in the housing market.
我想是的。这对房地产市场的影响最大。
I've been very struck by this.
这给我留下了深刻的印象。
So, the Fed to date actually hasn't raised interest rates that much.
到目前为止，美联储实际上还没有加息那么多。
Only about a percentage point, but the mortgage interest rate has risen.
只有大约一个百分点，但抵押贷款利率已经上升。
We were under 3% if you go back to December of 2021, and I haven't seen the latest numbers, but we have been around 5.3%, 5.4%, and there's -- a lot of people believe it's about to go considerably higher.
如果你追溯到2021年12月，我们的利率不到3%，我还没有看到最新的数据，但现在我们的利率一直在5.3%-5.4%左右，而且--很多人认为利率将会变得相当高。
And that's had a huge impact on the housing market.
这会对房地产市场产生巨大的影响。
You know, at this point, a lot of this is anecdotal, but the one thing we can point to is that if you look at purchase mortgage applications, that's down about 15% year over year, so that means people looking to get a mortgage to purchase a house, that's down 15%.
在这一点上，这很大程度上是传闻，但我们可以指出的一件事是，如果你看看购买抵押贷款申请，这比去年下降了大约15%，这意味着希望获得抵押贷款买房的人，下降了15%。
That's a very big year-over-year falloff, and the anecdotal evidence that you hear from Realtors is if you go back, say, to the winter, every house that came on the market almost immediately had two, three, four above-listing offers.
这是一个非常大的同比降幅，你从房地产经纪人那里听到的传闻证据是，如果你回到去年冬天，每一套上市的房子几乎立刻就有两、三、四个高于挂牌价的报价。
Today, you're seeing price reductions. People can't sell at their listed price.
今天，你看到的是降价。人们不能以挂牌价出售。
So it seems like that's really taken the air out of the market.
这似乎真的让市场失去了活力。
And that's a market where prices went up 30% over the last two years.
在过去的两年里，这个市场的价格上涨了30%。
That's nationally. So in many places it's gone up 35, 40%.
这是全国性的。在许多地方，房价上涨了35%至40%。
That was important to stop. And I think they did that. And that's a really, really important thing.
停止这种上涨是重要的。我认为他们做到了。这是一件非常非常重要的事情。
You did not want to see house prices keep rising like that.
你不希望看到房价像这样持续上涨。
And I expect the reduction in home purchases to have an impact on rents, not this month or next month, but almost really by the end of the year.
我预计，购房减少将会对租金产生影响，不是本月或下个月，但真的会在今年年底产生影响。
So that's a place where it will have an impact on inflation.
这是一个将对通胀产生影响的地方。
Other places, I don't think it's had much impact on inflation, and that's because so much of the inflation is due to factors that really are beyond the Fed's control.
在其他地方，我不认为这对通胀产生了太大影响，这是因为通胀在很大程度上是由于美联储无法控制的因素造成的。
So, oil prices going up.
油价一直在上涨。
What's the Fed going to do to lower oil prices?
美联储将采取什么措施来压低油价？
So that's again, one reason why I'm concerned that the Fed could go too far in raising rates, because so much of the inflation is due to factors that the Fed really has no control of, and it can't really in any big way do something about the inflation and gas prices.
这也是我担心美联储可能会在加息上过头的原因之一，因为太多的通胀是由美联储实际上无法控制的因素造成的，美联储对通胀和汽油价格实际上无法采取任何重大措施。
