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(Now)THE RISK REPORT By Ian Bremmer
（接下来是）风险报告 文/伊恩· 布雷默
Italy's populists wring votes from anti-migrant fervor
意大利民粹主义者利用反移民思潮榨取选票
In any country where voting matters, politicians must find an issue emotive enough to drive their voters to the polls.
在任何重视选举的国家，政客们都要依靠足够敏感的话题来以推动他们的选民参与民调。
Italy votes on March 4, and immigration has become the dominant election-year controversy.
意大利于3月4日进行了选举，移民问题成了本次选举最具争议的话题。
We shouldn't be surprised.
对此我们并不奇怪。
Unlike those of Spain and Ireland, Italy's economy hasn't enjoyed a notable turnaround.
与西班牙和爱尔兰不同，意大利的经济并未出现明显好转。
It has grown for more than three years,
尽管三年多来意大利的经济一直在增长，
but it needs another six years at the current pace to return to GDP levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis.
但照目前的发展节奏来看，要恢复到2008年金融危机前的GDP水平，还需要6年时间。
The official unemployment rate stands at around 11%.
官方失业率高达11％左右。
Many Italians say their taxes are too high, their cities are dirty and dangerous, and their politicians are hopelessly corrupt.
很多意大利人都抱怨赋税太高，城市肮脏而危险以及政治家们腐败得无可救药。
Now add the 600,000 migrants who have landed in Italy over the past four years.
如今又多了60万过去四年内陆陆续续抵达意大利的移民。
The flow slowed sharply in the second half of last year,
尽管去年下半年移民流涌入的速度大幅减缓，
but boats from North Africa still bring refugees across the Mediterranean, particularly from strife-torn Libya.
但来自北非的船只还在继续往地中海输送难民，尤其是来自饱受冲突摧残的利比亚的难民。
The most likely election outcome is another of Italy's famously unstable coalition governments.
意大利多党执政导致政坛不稳的情况早就声名在外，本次选举最终极有可能再次陷入这一僵局。
Silvio Berlusconi—forbidden, as a convicted tax fraudster, from serving another term as Prime Minister—may instead become kingmaker,
或许西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼——其涉嫌税务欺诈案的罪名已被证实，被判处取消连任首相的资格——反而能成为拥立国家领导人之人，
if asked to decide whether his center-right Forza Italia should ally with the far-right League (formerly the Northern League) or the center-left Democratic Party.
如果让他来决定中右翼的力量党到底是与极右翼的联盟党（前身为北方联盟党）结盟，还是与中左翼的民主党结盟的话。
Polling suggests the populist Five Star Movement (5SM) is the most popular single party, but it would need one or more far-right partners to lead a government.
民意调查显示，民粹主义政党五星运动党（5SM）是最受欢迎的唯一政党，但要领导政府它还需要与一个或多个极右翼政党结盟。
Immigration has driven the debate.
移民问题也在这一辩论中起到了推动作用。
Berlusconi has called migrants a "bomb ready to explode."
贝卢斯科尼称移民为“随时会爆炸的炸弹”。
Along with the leaders of 5SM and the League, he has promised his party would deport all 600,000 of them—
他与五星运动党，联盟党的领导人一致承诺过，他领导的政党会将所有60万移民悉数驱逐出境 -
with no credible explanation of how that could be done, or where they would be sent.
但具体要怎么做，那些移民又会被送往哪里，贝卢斯科尼并未作出可靠的解释。
Berlusconi also pledges soldiers on the streets to maintain order.
此外，贝卢斯科尼还呼吁街头的士兵维持好秩序。
Only former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's Democratic Party supports a more welcoming approach.
只有前总理马泰奥·伦齐领导的民主党支持对移民采取更宽容的态度。
Here as elsewhere, immigration plays well for populists, because those fearful and angry about new arrivals are ready to talk about it.
与其他地方一样，移民问题也成了意大利民粹主义者的工具，因为那些恐惧并憎恶新来的移民的人随时都愿意针对这个问题说上两句。
Those who welcome migrants, and those less concerned about the issue, are less noisy.
那些欢迎移民的人，以及那些不太关心这个问题的人，就没有他们喧嚣。
How ugly is the politics?
政治有多丑陋？
A few weeks ago, a failed Northern League candidate was arrested after six immigrants were shot in a drive-by spree in Macerata, a town northeast of Rome.
几周前，六名移民在罗马东北部城镇马切拉塔被驾车呼啸而过的歹徒枪杀，随后，一名选举失败的北方联盟候选人就被逮捕了。
Italian media reported that, after the shootings, the 28-year-old suspect stepped out of his car draped in an Italian flag, offered a fascist salute and shouted "Italy for the Italians."
意媒报道称，枪击事件发生后，这名28岁的嫌疑人走出他喷有意大利国旗图案的车，做了个向法西斯致敬的动作，同时高喊“意大利是意大利人的”。
A heated issue has only gotten hotter.
原本激烈的讨论也愈演愈烈。
The question now is whether whoever leads the country next will be able—or willing—to lower the temperature.
现在的问题是，无论接下来由谁领导国家，他能否——或者说是否愿意——平息风波。
译文由可可原创，仅供学习交流使用，未经许可请勿转载。
