The other point, however, I think this is more important to her and perhaps objectively more important in looking at the situation. She understands that the military on her side is simply not capable of controlling the NPA through military means.

And by threatening to unleash the military, she may actually be making a threat which does not have much credibility. But I think she would almost do anything possible to put off having to go to primarily military strategy for dealing with the insurgency. So in a sense she is playing for time.

If they manage to agree on a cease fire, then what happens after that? What happens when the 100 days is up? Nobody wants to be the first one to break the cease fire once it's put into effect.

So I think the agreement to a 100 day cease fire is, has much longer term and much broader implication, if in fact they could come to that agreement, which at this point I think it is still very much up in the air.

If it fails, if it fails, does that mean an escalation in the military complex? Well, I think the pressures on Aquino for letting the military go back to its preferred strategy, attempting to go on the offensive, to carry out major military operations, particularly in Central Luzon and in the Southern Tagalog, that is south of Manila, is very strong.

And that she will probably make concessions to the military which would allow it to resume the offenses to at least try that out.

Garis Porter is an assistant Professor at American University's School of International Services in Washington, D.C.