Finance and economicsCruel worldInvestors begin to accept that high borrowing costs are here to stay.According to T.S. Eliot, April is the cruellest month.Shareholders would disagree.For them, it is September.The rest of the year stocks tend to rise more often than not.Since 1928, the ratio of monthly gains to losses in America’s S&P 500 index, excluding September, has been about 60/40.But the autumn chill seems to do something to the market’s psyche.In September the index has dropped 55% of the time.True to form, after a jittery August it has spent recent weeks falling.Such a calendar effect flies in the face of the idea that financial markets are efficient.After all, asset prices ought only to move in response to new information (future cash flows, for instance).Predictable fluctuations should be identified, exploited and arbitraged away by traders.Yet this September there is no mystery about what is going on: investors have learned, or rather accepted, something new.High interest rates are here for the long haul.The downturn was prompted by a marathon session of monetary-policy announcements, which began with America’s Federal Reserve on September 20th and concluded two days and 11 central banks later.
财经版块残酷世界投资者开始接受高借贷成本将持续存在的事实。T. S. 艾略特说，四月是最残酷的月份。股东们不会同意。对他们而言，最残酷的月份是九月。每年九月之后，股市往往会上涨。自1928年以来，美国标准普尔500指数股票的月度涨跌幅之比(不包括9月)约为60：40。但秋季的寒气似乎对市场的心理造成了一些影响。今年9月，该指数下跌了55%。与以往一样，在经历了紧张不安的8月之后，最近几周股市一直在下跌。这种周期效应与金融市场的有效性背道而驰。毕竟，资产价格应该只会随着新信息(例如未来现金流)而变动。交易员应该识别、利用可预测的波动并从中套利。然而，今年9月的情况明明白白：投资者已经了解到，或者更确切地说，已经接受了一些新事实。即高利率将长期存在。股市下跌是由马拉松式的一系列货币政策出台引发的，从9月20日美联储宣布政策开始，到两天后11家中央银行宣布政策结束。
