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More evidence that hormone testing for women's fertility does not work.
Women seeking to defer motherhood are often encouraged to check their fertility.
Though fecundity is tied to age, the effect of time's passage varies.
Some 35-year-olds find they cannot get pregnant.
Others manage at the first attempt.
The main causes of fertility's reduction with advancing years are declines in the number and quality of the eggs in a woman's ovaries.
Unlike men, who manufacture sperm throughout their post-pubertal lives, albeit in ever-decreasing quantities, all of a woman's potential eggs develop while she is still a fetus.
A newborn girl has over 1m of them.
By puberty, she is left with about 400,000.
When the menopause arrives, that has been whittled down below 1,000, which are likely to be duds.
But fertility tests currently on offer neither count the number of eggs remaining nor assess their quality.
Rather, they rely on an indirect approach - sampling what are hoped to be relevant hormones.
Hormone tests do have some value in estimating the timing of menopause and the success of harvesting eggs for in vitro fertilisation.
But forecasting pregnancy?
The evidence suggests that they can't.
One test-sceptic is Anne Steiner of the Duke Fertility Centre, in North Carolina.
She suspects hormone tests do indicate how many eggs are left to a woman, but that this is not what matters - rather, it is the eggs' quality which is crucial.
更多证据表明,检测女性生育能力的荷尔蒙测试并不奏效。
人们通常会鼓励希望推迟生育时间的女性检测自己的生育能力。
虽然生育能力与年龄有关,但其对不同人的影响不同。
一些人35岁发现自己无法怀孕。
还有人第一次尝试就能成功。
生育能力随着年龄增长而下降的主要原因是,女性年龄越大,卵巢中卵子的数量越少,质量越低。
而男性则不同。虽然男性制造精子的数量会不断减少,但他们在青春期后始终都在制造精子;而女性的所有卵子都是在胎儿时期开始发育的。
一个刚出生的女孩有100多万个卵子。
到了青春期,就只剩下大约40万。
到了更年期,卵子数量会低于1000,并且很可能质量很低。
但目前为女性提供的生育测试既不计算其剩余的卵子数量,也不评估卵子的质量。
这些测试依赖于一种间接的方法――对可能与女性生育能力相关的荷尔蒙进行采样。
荷尔蒙测试在预测更年期的时间和预测采集卵子进行体外受精的成功率方面确实有一定的价值。
但在预测怀孕方面呢?
证据表明,荷尔蒙测试在这方面没有效果。
北卡罗来纳州杜克生育中心的安妮・斯坦纳就对测试持怀疑态度。
她认为荷尔蒙测试确实能检测一个女人还剩下多少卵子,但这并不是问题的关键――卵子的质量才是关键。
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