Finance and EconomicsFollow the moneyThe only thing that proved transitory about inflation in America in 2021 was the consensus that it would subside.The left-hand chart shows that analysts consistently revised up their predictions, trailing reality.Consumer prices are now rising by nearly 7% compared with a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1982.What does the future hold?The right-hand chart presents two scenarios.In the first, month-on-month inflation immediately falls back to its pre-pandemic trajectory.Even so, it would take until the end of 2022 for annual inflation to slow to the 2% pace that used to be the norm.In the second case, consumer prices rise at the same monthly clip seen over the past year.Annual inflation would soar to nearly 8% in February, and stay elevated.Either way, one prediction seems rock-solid: the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in 2022, as the central bank itself indicated on December 15th.
