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In its most severe scenario there was a sudden change in climate policy alongside rapid progress in renewable energy development, causing a “double shock” for companies and a severe recession.
Even then, banks’ capital ratios fell by about four percentage points.
That is sizeable, but still less than what the banks experienced in this year’s regular stress tests by the European Banking Authority, which they were deemed to pass.
To what extent are these stress tests realistic?
Mark Campanale of Carbon Tracker is sceptical, pointing out that most firms are using out-of-date models.
If auditors were ever to stress companies’ assets against a much lower oil price, the associated write-downs could trigger a collapse in investor sentiment of the sort regulators fear, he claims.
Nor do the stress tests include a full-blown Minsky crisis.
Yet in other respects they are conservative.
Most of the tests used an accelerated time frame―five years in the DNB and BdF cases―in effect assuming that firms are stuck with the balance-sheets they have today.
But it seems reasonable to think that banks and insurers will change their business models as the climate transition progresses, curbing the impact on the financial system.
The BdF ran a second exercise where firms were allowed to make realistic changes to their business models over 30 years.
在最严重的情况下,气候政策的突然变化伴随着可再生能源开发的快速进展,给企业带来“双重冲击”和严重的经济衰退。
即便如此,银行的资本比率仍下降了约4个百分点。
这一数字着实不低,但它仍低于今年欧洲银行管理局(European Banking Authority)对银行进行的常规压力测试结果,它们获得了测试通过认可。
这些压力测试有多真实呢?
碳追踪公司的Mark Campanale对此持怀疑态度,他指出大多数公司使用的都是过时的模型。
他声称,如果审计机构在油价大幅下跌的情况下对公司资产施加压力,相关的资产减记可能会引发监管机构所担心的那种投资者情绪崩溃。
压力测试也没有包括全面的明斯基危机。
不过在其他方面,他们比较保守。
大多数测试使用了一个加速的时间框架――DNB和BdF是5年――其实是假设公司一直受困于眼下的资产负债表。
但如果说,随着气候变化的发展,银行和保险公司改变它们的业务模式,遏制其对金融体系的影响,也是有道理的。
BdF进行了第二次试验,允许企业在30年的时间里对其商业模式做出实际改变。
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