With new coronavirus cases at a record high, the race for a covid-19 vaccine is setting a record pace.But finding a vaccine and making it through the various stages for approval are two different things.I recently spoke with Propublica reporter Caroline Chen about the ambitious timeline and unpredictability of clinical trials.At this point, there seems to be a lot of optimism for people to say, you know what,life is going to get back to normal when I get a shot in the arm, when there's an approved vaccine.I've heard it's just around the corner. But you talked to a lot of experts, and it's not going to be that simple.I did talk to a lot of experts and there is optimism that we will eventually have a vaccine for the coronavirus.There might have to be some managing of expectations over how soon, exactly, that will be.The trials will take however long they will take to run.And I asked a lot of people, what are you unwilling to compromise on?And what all the experts said to me is, we don't want to compromise on that phase three trial.The phase three trial is where we have a very large population, thousands of people take it at the same time.Some get the vaccine, some don't get the vaccine. And then, you kind of wait to see, what? What goes possibly wrong?So, the phase three trial is exactly what you said. It is a large trial.So, the first one that's going to happen in the U.S. with the moderna vaccine is planned to be 30,000 people...half get the vaccine, half get the placebo.And then, you just wait and see how many people get sick in the vaccine arm versus the placebo arm.
随着新冠病毒病例创历史新高，covid-19疫苗的竞争也创下纪录，但是找到疫苗和通过不同阶段的审批是两件不同的事情。最近，我和Propublica的记者卡洛琳・陈谈到了野心勃勃的时间线和临床试验不可预测性，在这一点上，似乎有很多乐观的人们说：你知道吗，在被认可的疫苗下来之后，只要我们在胳膊上打一针生活就能回到正轨。这是我在角落里听到的，但是你跟很多专家都谈过这个，事情没那么简单吧。我确实跟很多专家谈过，他们对我们最终研制出冠状病毒疫苗持乐观态度。或许必须对预期进行一些管理，以确定何时才能实现这一目标。试验需要多长时间都行。我问过很多人：你在哪方面不愿意妥协？所有的专家都对我说：我们不想在第三阶段的试验上妥协。第三阶段试验的人数比较多，成千上万的人同时参与，有些人接种了疫苗，有些人没有接种。之后就等着，等什么？看哪里出了问题？所以，正如你所说的，第三阶段试验，这是一个大的试验。所以，美国出来的第一批moderna疫苗将有3万人接种，一半人接种疫苗，另一半人服用安慰剂，然后，你就等着看有多少人在接种疫苗组和安慰剂组中患病。
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