The past three trading days have been a roller-coaster ride for global markets.At this morning's opening bell on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 500 points,and then ended the trading day up more than 500 points, a 1,000-point swing.To help us understand this, we are joined by Neil Irwin, senior economics correspondent for The New York Times' Upshot.Neil, thanks for being here. This morning, you wrote that the key to keep in mind is to keep the long view in mind.So, having said that, what do we take from the last three days?Well, I think the era of extreme low volatility may be over, at least for a while.I think it might come back, but for now this period we had, all of 2017, not a single day of the stock market losing more than 2 percent.That's very unusual. And we have now had two of those days out of the last three trading sessions.This is clearly a more volatile environment. This is clearly a time when stocks are going crazy.That said, we're still only at about mid-December levels. We're down only a little bit for the year.We haven't even hit the correction level of losing 10 percent in stock value. So, this isn't a crisis.This isn't something to worry about too much. At the same time, it's certainly is a little teeth-chattering when you watch the daily stock market ticker.And, in a way, it was a return of volatility. We hadn't seen this sort of volatility in quite a while.Why do you think it came back this way?There seems to be some self-fulfilling cycles happening. There are a lot of investors betting against volatility.There is also some news behind this. There was a jobs report Friday that suggested wage growth is a little stronger than it appeared.
对全球市场来说，过去的三个交易日可谓是坐过山车。今早华尔街开盘时，道琼斯工业指数暴跌了500多点，随后，当天收盘时，又上涨了500多点，这前后的跌涨竟多达1000点。为了理解这一现象，我们特邀纽约时报Upshot高级经济记者尼尔・欧文做客节目。尼尔，谢谢你的到来。今天早上，你写道，我们关键要记住的是着眼长远。既然这样说，我们从过去三天的经验中能获得怎样的启示呢？嗯，我认为（股市）超低波动的时代可能已经结束，至少有很长一段时间会是如此。我认为超低波动可能还会回归。但目前就2017年全年来讲，股市没有一天下跌超过2%的。这种情况还是很少见的。但在过去三个交易日内，有两天下跌都超过了2%。这明显是一个更加动荡的环境。显然，最近股市有点疯狂。也就是说，我们仍然保持在十二月中旬左右的水平。今年，我们只下降了一点点。我们甚至都没有触及到股价下跌10%的调整水平。所以，这并不是什么危机。这不是太值得担心的事。同时，当你看每日股票行情时，肯定还是有点牙齿打颤。从某种角度上讲，这是股市波动性的回归。我们已有相当长的一段时间，没有看到这种（剧烈）波动了。你觉得为什么它会以这种方式重现？似乎有一些自动实现的周期正在发生。很多投资者就赌这种波动不会出现。这背后还涌动着一些新闻。星期五有一份就业报告显示，工资增长比看起来要更加强劲一点。
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