Most bubbles are easily assimilated or averted by an elastic market.Provided the bubble is small enough, the losers earn wisdom in retrospect, and the winners earn a lot of money.But the effects of a bubble might become cumulative if many owners of an overpriced asset feel rich and spend foolishly, especially in a period of deregulation.Imagine this: You buy a house for $200,000, for which you borrowed $160,000 beforehand. You have $40,000 in equity in the house.Over the next five years, the market appraisal rises to $500,000.You still have $100,000 in equity in your home, and you have $240,000 to spend.You suddenly feel less need to be economical with your purchases and allocate more money for things like a vacation home, a new car, etc.But equity is not revenue.The market holds long enough for you to spend the money.Then it crashes and the value of your home falls to $325,000.Now you have negative equity and owe the bank almost $400,000.So you default on your loan and give your house, car, and vacation home to the bank.
大多数的泡沫容易被弹性市场加以消化或转移。只要这种泡沫不是很大,输家花钱买聪明,赢家则赚得盆满钵满。但如果资产虚高,持有人恃富而挥霍无度,这种泡沫效应就会不断积累,尤其在市场缺乏监管之时。试想一下:你以 200,000 美元购买一套房子,事先贷款 160,000 美元,则房产净值为 40,000 美元。五年过后,市场估价上升到 500,000 美元。Now you have $340,000 in equity ($500,000-$160,000), so you borrow another $240,000 from a bank using this equity to secure the loan.现在你获得的房产净值就是 340,000 美元(即$500,000-$160,000),于是你以此作担保,再贷款 240,000 美元。你依然持有 100,000 美元的房产净值,还有 240,000 美元可供花销。顿时,你会觉得没有必要节省开支,还能抽出更多钱来购置度假屋及新车等等。但房产净值并不是收益。市场长期保持稳定,让你有足够的时间花钱。后来,市场崩溃,你的房屋价值跌至 325,000 美元。你现在持有的房产净值为负,倒欠银行将近 400,000 美元。为此,你就停止还款,将房子、车子和度假屋等交给银行。
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