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The Russian economy is in trouble. The price of the ruble is sinking.
It's now worth 50 percent less against the dollar than it was a year ago, as the price of oil falls and Western economic sanctions tighten.
Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, held his annual press conference this week and it lasted three hours.
He tried to reassure the nation, but even as he spoke the ruble fell a few points more.
We're joined now by Michael McFaul, a professor of political science at Stanford and former U.S. ambassador to Russia.
Thanks very much for being with us again.
Sure, thanks for having me.
It wasn't so long ago that rich Russians were strutting a little. What's happened?
Well, just what you described.
There's been fall in the oil prices, which has had a big effect on the ruble; exacerbated by the sanctions,
in my view, and suddenly a confident Putin and a confident Russia is no more.
I think growth is next to zero by the end of the year
and many people are predicting negative four ― maybe even negative 5 ― percent economic contraction next year.
Does anyone in Russia say ― are they bold enough to now say in public that invading Crimea doesn't look like such a smart move?
Bold enough in public ― that's an interesting phrase.
I would say no to that, but that said, lots of people are now beginning to raise that quietly.
And the trade-off, economically, for what happened in Ukraine is becoming a serious issue that people are discussing.
One person who's not discussing it that way, however, is President Putin
俄罗斯经济陷入困境。卢布不断贬值。
由于油价下跌及西方经济制裁加紧,与一年前相比,现在卢布兑美元已经跌破50%。
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔・普京本周召开了年度记者会,这场记者会持续了三个小时。
他试图安抚俄罗斯国民,但是就在他发表讲话时,卢布又下跌了。
今天我们请到了斯坦福大学的政治学教授、前美国驻俄罗斯大使迈克尔・麦克福尔。
非常感谢你再次做客我们的节目。
不客气,谢谢你们邀请我。
不久之前富有的俄罗斯还能支撑这一切。到底发生了什么?
就像你刚说的。
油价下跌对卢布有极大的影响,而制裁措施又加剧了这一影响,
在我看来,自信的普京和自信的俄罗斯突然消失了。
我认为截至今年底,俄罗斯经济增长的机会几乎为零,
许多人预测明年俄罗斯的经济萎缩幅度可能达到4%,甚至是5%。
俄罗斯人有没有这么说,他们现在有足够的勇气公开表示侵入克里米亚看起来并不是一个明智的举动吗?
有足够的勇气公开表示――这是一个有趣的说法。
我想没有,不过现在有很多人开始悄悄地表达这一想法。
从经济角度来权衡,乌克兰发生的事情成为人们谈论的一个严重问题。
不过有一个人并没有这样来进行谈论,那就是普京总统,
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