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It seemed there was a breakthrough at a rare meeting October 17 between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents.
"We agreed with Ukrainian partners on the conditions of the resumption of the gas supplies to Ukraine, at least for the winter period," Russian President Vladimir Putin said that day.
“We have agreed on the main parameters of the contract and we are now continuing talks on the resources to cover the shortage of funds," Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said.
But follow-up talks failed to deliver an agreement on the details.
And that same day, during a visit to a military base in the midst of the parliamentary election campaign, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk was in a combative mood.
"I will tell you frankly, I think Putin doesn't want to sign any agreement, and his goal is to freeze Ukraine," he said. "We must be ready for the worst-case scenario."
Ukraine depends on Russian gas not only for cooking and heating, but also for its energy-inefficient factories,
mainly the eastern part of the country, including in areas controlled by Russian-backed rebels.
That's a big part of the problem, said Pierre Noel, who specializes in economics and energy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a global security organization.
"In the long term, nothing has been solved," Noel said, speaking via Skype.
"Ukraine is in a very difficult economic situation. It was before the conflict. The conflict sharply aggravated that."
看来在10月17日俄罗斯和乌克兰总统举行的罕见会议上双方取得了突破。
“就恢复对乌克兰至少今年冬天的天然气供应的条件上我们与乌克兰方达成一致。”
“我们已就协议的主要参数达成一致,还将继续就利用该资源来弥补资金短缺一事做进一步协商。”
但随后的谈判未能就细节达成协议,
就在当天,乌克兰总理亚采纽克带着战斗的情绪参观了一个军事基地,当时正处于议会选举活动期间。
“我要坦诚告诉大家的是,我想普京不会签署任何协议的,他的目的就是冻结乌克兰。我们必须做最坏的准备。”
乌克兰需要俄罗斯的天然气来满足做饭和加热之用,还要满足其能效不高的工厂的需求,
这些工厂主要分布在该国东部,包括被俄罗斯支持的叛军控制下的地区。
在国际安全组织国际战略研究所专门研究经济和能源的皮埃尔・诺埃尔说,这就是个大问题。
“从长远来看,什么问题都没有解决。
乌克兰在经济上很困难,冲突之前就很困难,而这场冲突令情况更糟。”
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