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Barack Obama and the Republicans: A beatable president.
But only if a Republican candidate starts laying out a sensible plan for the American economy.
NEXT week a collection of largely unknown Republicans will hold the first proper TV debate of the 2012 presidential campaign.
Whoever eventually wins their party's nomination then has to take on Barack Obama, the giant of American politics.
The president has a huge war chest, his own party firmly behind him and a rare capacity to inspire.
Yet he is vulnerable.
This week a poll showed him in a dead heat with Mitt Romney, the Republican front runner.
America's sluggish recovery will give any challenger a chance.
The question is whether any Republican has the personality and especially the ideas to take him on.
For the best way to make this race competitive and the best thing for America is to force voters to confront the hard choices their country has to make.
In terms of the horse race, an incumbent president( especially if he is without a primary challenger) usually has a head start.
While the Republicans spend the next year clobbering each other, Mr Obama can appear statesmanlike and husband his resources.
His approval rating is in the 50s, better than Bill Clinton's at this stage in the proceedings in 1995,
before he went on to score a solid victory against Bob Dole in 1996.
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