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分析报道 中国房地产市场的前景黯淡

来源:可可英语 编辑:shaun   可可英语APP下载 |  可可官方微信:ikekenet

As China’s real estate slump began to hit sales at the Champs Elysées development in the picturesque lakeside city of Hangzhou, the company building it responded with a price cut.

随着中国房地产市场的不景气开始打击天鸿香榭里项目的销售,开发商以降价回应。该项目位于风景如画的湖畔城市杭州。
Angry homeowners gathered to protest, holding banners with slogans such as “Return my blood and sweat money!” as police formed a barricade around the office entrance. The residents relented eventually, perhaps with the creeping realisation that the days of making easy money are over.
愤怒的业主聚集起来举行抗议,他们拿着的横幅标语写着“还我血汗钱!”警察在办公室入口处搭起人墙。居民们最终还是罢休了,他们或许渐渐认识到,容易赚钱的日子已经过去了。

“People are returning to rationality,” says Chen Xuemei, sales manager at the Champs Elysées. “If they are starting a family and need a home, they will still buy. But people are no longer buying homes expecting to earn a big profit.”

“人们正在回归理性,”天鸿香榭里项目的销售经理陈雪梅表示,“如果他们开始组织一个家庭,需要一个住所,他们仍然会购买。但是,人们不再为了赚大钱而置业了。”
China’s property boom appears to be grinding to a halt. Prices have dropped in many parts of the country, sales have dried up and construction has fallen sharply as developers have retrenched.
中国的房地产繁荣似乎正慢慢陷于停顿。全国许多地方的价格已经下降,销售趋于枯竭,随着开发商开始收缩,建设规模大幅跳水。
A change in attitude among homebuyers – away from speculation towards a system based on fundamental demand for accommodation – is leading to a shift in the way the country’s housing market operates.
购房者态度的转变——告别投机,转向根本的住宿需求——正导致中国房地产市场的运行方式发生转变。
“Previously parents told their kids: don’t squander your money . . . save it and buy a house. After you buy a house, save more and buy another house,” says Du Jinsong, property analyst at Credit Suisse, the bank. “Now, even parents are saying: don’t buy houses any more – it’s not worth it.”
“以往,父母告诉他们的孩子:别浪费钱……存起来,买一套房子。买了一套房子后,你还要继续存钱,买第二套房子。”瑞信(Credit Suisse)房地产分析师杜劲松表示,“现在就连父母也在说:别再买房子了,不值得。”
China’s last property downturn in 2011 was met with concerted action from central government, including interest rate cuts.
中国上一场房地产市场低迷发生在2011年,它促使中央政府采取协调一致的应对行动,包括减息。
This time, however, Beijing has held firm, leaving local governments – and property developers – to formulate their own responses. Those efforts are now in full swing, including price cuts, easier access to capital and the end of restrictions on buying several houses.
但这一次,北京方面态度坚决,地方政府以及房地产开发商只好拿出自己的应对措施。这些努力目前在全面展开,包括降价、放宽资本获取渠道以及终止限购政策。
Last week, the southern city of Foshan became the latest to announce an easing of restrictions for those seeking to buy more than one flat, something analysts at credit rating agency Moody’s said should “release some of the pent-up demand for residential properties and reduce pressure on pricing”.
上周,佛山成为最新一个宣布放宽限购政策的城市,评级机构穆迪(Moody's)分析师表示,此类举措应当会“释放一部分被压抑的住宅物业需求,减小定价压力”。
Fujian province announced steps at the end of last month aimed at bolstering demand, including introducing tax incentives for property purchases, while the province of Sichuan even briefly flirted with subsidising mortgages.
福建省在上月底宣布了一些提振需求的措施,包括出台购买房产的税收优惠;四川省甚至一度酝酿补贴房贷。
Of the 47 Chinese cities with home purchase limits at the start of the year, 34 have relaxed their policies, with a dozen removing controls altogether.
在今年初实施住房限购政策的47个中国城市中,有34个放松了政策,12个城市完全废止了限购。
From the developers’ side, prices have been slashed and extra perks introduced to entice would-be buyers. Some have promised to buy back homes if prices fall, or offered cheap loans to finance downpayments. The Champs Elysées development stressed the French theme by giving bottles of Chanel perfume to people who came for viewings.
就开发商而言,它们已大幅降价,并推出额外的优惠以吸引潜在买家。有些开发商承诺如果价格下跌可以回购住房,或者为首付提供廉价贷款。以法国情调为卖点的天鸿香榭里项目,向前来看房的人赠送香奈儿(Chanel)香水。
These supportive measures – which vary by city and province – have had an effect. Though prices have continued to fall, the number of transactions surged in June as restrictions were eased in certain cities, providing developers with welcome cash and bringing some confidence back to the market.
这些扶持措施——具体做法各省市有所不同——起到了一定作用。尽管价格持续下跌,但随着某些城市放宽限购,6月份成交数量出现激增,为开发商带来亟需的现金,并使市场在一定程度上恢复信心。
However, many analysts say the responses won’t be enough to bring back the heady days of double-digit annual price growth and that the inventory overhang will take at least a year to draw down.
然而,许多分析师表示,这些应对措施不足以让市场回到两位数年度价格涨幅的激动人心的日子,而库存过剩将至少需要一年时间才能消化。
A recent survey of mainland developers by Standard Chartered presented a gloomy picture, with the bank declaring that the worst was yet to come for China’s property sector.
渣打(Standard Chartered)近期对中国开发商进行的一项调查描绘出一幅黯淡的图景。该行宣称,中国房地产业最糟糕的日子还在后头。
Wei Yao, economist at Société Générale, the bank, agrees. “A further slowdown in investment still seems inevitable”, she wrote in a recent note.
法国兴业银行(Société Générale)经济学家姚炜对此表示认同。“投资进一步放缓看上去仍是不可避免的”,她在最近的一份简报中写道。

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vary ['vɛəri]

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v. 变化,改变,使多样化

 
eventually [i'ventjuəli]

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adv. 终于,最后

 
purchase ['pə:tʃəs]

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vt. 买,购买
n. 购买,购买的物品

 
speculation [.spekju'leiʃən]

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n. 沉思,推测,投机

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theme [θi:m]

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n. 题目,主题

 
relaxed [ri'lækst]

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adj. 放松的, 松懈的,随意的 relax的过去式(

 
squander ['skwɔndə]

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v. 浪费,使 ... 散开

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protest [prə'test]

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n. 抗议,反对,声明
v. 抗议,反对,申明

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swing [swiŋ]

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n. 摇摆,改变,冲力
v. 摇摆,旋转,动摇

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pressure ['preʃə]

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n. 压力,压强,压迫
v. 施压

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