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Despite the fact that most of the world's 33.5 million HIV/AIDS cases are in sub-Saharan Africa—with an additional 4 million infected each year—the priorities at last week's Organization of African Unity summit were conflict resolution and economic development. Yet the epidemic could have a greater impact on economic development—or, rather, the lack of it— than many politicians suspect. Business leaders are more concerned about the Y2K millennium bug than the long-term effect of AIDS. Statistics show that the workforce in South Africa, for example, is likely to be 20% HIV positive by next year. Medical officials and researchers warn that not a single country in the region has a cohesive government strategy to tackle the crisis.
Zimbabwe's frail domestic economy depends to a large extent on informal enterprises and small businesses, many of which are imploding as AIDS takes its toll on owners and employees. "The ripple effect is devastating," says Harare AIDS researcher Renee Lowenson.